Puerto Rico Will Put Obama Over The Top

This is how it would go... if the democrats, or the Obama camp were smarter about spin right now. They could play it like this...

The real magic number is of pledged delegates 1627, not 2024. Here is why...

As is commonly held belief, the required number of delegates required in order to gain the democratic nomination and avoid a protracted convention or pre-convention fight, is 2024. Since the number of pledged delegates is 3253, and the number of superdelegates is 794 the grand total voting members of the convention is 4047. By conventional theory, 2024 is over half the total number of delegates, thus guaranteeing that the superdelegates can not rob this side of the nomination. But this is only in the case of a scenario where the pledged delegates may be at odds with the tendencies of the superdelegates.

But lets not think that way. Lets think of it as a real democratic contest. A contest where only the pledged delegates matter and the superdelegates understand the risk of overturning the convention majority. In this case, the real number of pledged delegates necessary to ensure this majority would be over half of 3253, or 1627. In this case, the superdelegates would have to overturn the will of the majority of the pledged delegates in order to prevent this candidate from getting the nomination. Lets take it on faith that this would only be done in the case of extreme circumstances like a crazy surprise that makes the candidate's viability doubtful. In the case of Clinton, this could be her tax returns, in the case of Obama, it could be a number of things.

Since the Obama campaign has so far accumulated 1385 pledged delegates (by their count, 1321 according to CNN, 1366 according to MSNBC and Reuters) he needs a total of 242 (or slightly more) in order to achieve this majority.

This the magic number that the Obama camp should be talking about.

1627 is the real number for victory being assured (virtually) at the convention in August. This will likely be won by the Obama campaign after the Puerto Rico Primary on June 1st.

Thus, Obama will get an extra two months, from June to the convention to hit McCain and the republicans. This is far superior to the alternative which is a convention fight.

1627 for victory!!!