A Game of Seconds

There has been much written about the horse race in Iowa.
Here is another brief analysis of current polls taking into account the second choices for the various candidates.

First, the raw initial poll numbers:

Obama - 28.3%
Clinton - 28.3%
Edwards 23.2%

If the Iowa Caucuses finished like this, it would be a dead heat between Obama and Clinton with Edwards finishing third, and likely out of the race. These numbers are from the website www.realclearpolitics.com where multiple polls over the same time period are averaged. The numbers above represent an average of 6 polls all with a margin of error of approx. 4-5%. If we assume that the methods used for the 6 different polls were identical, we may estimate a margin of error of about 2% for the average numbers above. This clearly places Edwards behind the leading two contenders outside the margin of error.

Now, lets take into account the second choices of the Iowa voters to estimate the real outcome of the voting process (ignoring of course, the real intangibles that may happen at voting time).

Adding up the numbers above, we see that about 80% (79.8%) of the Iowa voters will vote for the top three candidates as their first choice. This leaves 20% (20.2%) that will be forced to vote for their second choice or go home.

This is where it gets hard.

If the distribution of votes is not equal among the various polling stations, the number forced to vote for their second choice will increase. Also, a number of voters may go home and not vote for their second choice at all. In the absence of any data regarding this, we assume that the two factors will be a wash, and on average 20% of the electorate will have to vote for their second choice.

Recent polling data for second choices among the top tier candidates are as follows.

Edwards - 22.7%
Obama - 20.1%
Clinton - 13.8%

If these numbers hold, Edwards gets a 4.6% bounce, Obama gets a 4.1% bounce, and Clinton gets a 2.8% bounce. This leads to an estimate of final results as follows.

Obama - 32.4%
Clinton - 31.1%
Edwards - 27.8%

This gives the win to Obama. Is this enough of a margin to claim victory?

We shall see.

With the recent endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph going to Obama, coupled with one earlier from the Boston Globe, the Obama campaign may have all it needs to take two quick wins in a row.