Wednesday, December 19, 2007

New Iowa Poll

Barack Obama, 33%

Hillary Clinton, 29%

John Edwards, 20%

Bill Richardson, 8%

The Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Dec 13-17 and involved telephone interviews with 652 adults likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses.

This matches well with my prediction for the final numbers from Iowa.
Expect John Edwards to get a 5-10% 'rural' bump due to the way the caucuses weight delegates.
Also, expect Barack Obama to get a 5-10% bump due to his 'second choice' power. Delegates from Richardson and Biden will go preferentially to Obama or Edwards.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great work.