Sometimes the tide of history is inescapable.
Sometimes the need for change is so overwhelming that it infuses the very soul of a nation and propels a new crop of political heroes into leadership.
When the political arguments of an older generation must yield to the new concerns and new problem solving methods of a newer generation, we call this a shift of the political landscape.
In the United States, very regularly, there have been many of these shifts. Political scientists have created a naming scheme for these shifts - called the Party Systems. Depending on who you ask, there have either been Five or Six of them in all of American History.
From the first Presidency in 1789 to the election of 1824, the United States existed in a political regime now known as the First Party System. Presidents were exclusively chosen from the Revolutionary War generation, political parties were regularized, newspapers were exclusively in the hands of politicians, and the country was developing its nascent foreign policy with respect to the European Powers.
This era ended when the Federalist party ceased to be a political force, and the Democratic-Republicans split between Jackson and Clay during the contentious 1824 election. This was the first election that did not feature a Revolutionary War veteran (Jackson was an 1812 veteran), and was bitterly disputed. The election was thrown to the house of representatives, and John Quincy Adams (not the winner of the popular vote - this was Jackson) was elected. This divisive election framed the battles of the future where the Whigs (the party of the rich with no clear policy on slavery) battled the Jacksonian Democrats (expansionist frontier oriented). The period lasted from 1837 to 1852, leading to the Third Party System and the lead up to the Civil War.
The Third Party System is commonly thought to have existed between 1854 and 1896. It was marked by the upheaval of the Civil War and the terror ridden reconstruction era. The Republican Party rose to replace the Whigs with their traditional pro-business constituency, but took a clear stand against slavery. This new party eventually out-muscled every other party in the developed north and commanded a majority of the electoral votes - so that in 1860 it sowed the seeds of the Civil War. After the war, American politics was dominated by reconstruction politics with Civil War Veterans dominating the debate.
Williams Jennings Bryan, the brilliant populist orator, altered politics-as-usual again with his triumphant loss to McKinley in the election of 1896. This Fourth Party System is generally referred to as the Progressive Era and was dominated by domestic issues and populist politics. Although Bryan was never elected President, he maintained control the Democratic Party for years. During this period, Theodore Roosevelt, a veteran of the Spanish American War became a prominent reformer and populist in the Republican Party. The Republican Party dominated the presidential elections in this period.
The Fifth Party System began with the election of FDR after the failure of the pro-business Republican Party to deal with the Great Depression. It ushered in a period of dominance for the Democratic Party in presidential elections - they won 7 of the next 9 contests. This period is commonly referred to as the New Deal Period and was marked by a dramatic increase in social programs and government spending. The Democratic majority was secure due to the Solid South that was broken by the Civil Rights Bill and Nixons southern strategy. The contentious election year of 1968, and the failure of the Democratic Party to deal with the Vietnam War (or, as some would argue, the Cold War in General) marked the end of this period.
From 1968 to 2004 the Republican party won 7 of 10 presidential elections. Until the election of 1992, politics was largely dominated by veterans of WWII, and was largely fought on cold war issues. Republican dominance was largely the result of a coalition between the pro-business, strong defense, and social conservatives. The southern strategy began by Nixon was cemented by Reagan and led to the creation of a new Solid South in the hands of the Republicans. By the time of the elections of '00 and '04, the winner of the electoral college was determined by a handful of swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Missouri. The transitional period (and there is some debate about the dates here) began with the election of Clinton in '92 and saw the re-invention of the Democratic Party as a force capable of combating this new Republican majority. The Presidency of George W. Bush contributed to the collapse of the Reagan coalition and led to the landmark election of 2008.
The contentious election of 2000 will be regarded as the beginning of the end of the Sixth Party System. The election of 2008 may be regarded as the beginning of the Seventh Party System.
Here is a brief prediction of what will characterize this new period in American Politics.
1) The Democratic Party will dominate presidential elections for 30 years. This is not simply looking at the natural seesaw of history, but also some of the underlying problems within the Republican Party. The traditional Reagan coalition is broken, and all three factions are now openly vying for control of the party. Romney represents the business wing, Huckabee represents the social wing, and McCain or Giuliani represent the defense wing. Just as in 1968 for the Democratic Party, this open warfare will create lasting divisions in the party and will characterize their internal debates for years.
First Party System - ?
Second Party System - Democratic Republicans
Third Party System - Republicans
Fourth Party System -Republicans
Fifth Party System - Democrats
Sixth Party System - Republicans
Seventh Party System - ?
2) The Republican Party will fragment into the Social, Defense, and Fiscal wings that comprised the Reagan coalition (or as George Will recently called the Great Fusion).
3) The Democratic Party will increasingly be seen as pro-business in a climate of increasing emphasis on environmentalism and energy independence. The Democratic Party is now the only party poised to deal with the dominant issue of the time.
In every transition period, a major party loses power because it can not cope with the dominant issue that is driving the electorate.
The Fourth System ended with the Great Depression -> New Deal (Fifth System)
The Third System ended with the economic crisis of 1890s -> Progressive Period
The Second System ended with the slavery crisis -> End of Slavery, Reconstruction
What is the dominant issue of our time? Is it terrorism? I argue not. This is a symptom of western dominance in the middle east due to our energy policy.
The dominant issue of our time is our dependence on oil and the destructive foreign policy that this creates. If we wait one generation to tackle this problem, oil may very well be $300 a barrel. If we wait one generation to tackle this problem, the planet may not be able to recover from Global Warming. If we wait one generation to tackle this problem, the United States may go bankrupt defending its traditional sources of energy.
Every change in Party Systems is marked by a generational shift.
The Sixth System was dominated by veterans of WWII and in the transitional period, Vietnam veterans.
The Fourth System was dominated by Spanish American War veterans.
The Third System was dominated by Civil War veterans.
The Second System was dominated by veterans of the War of 1812
The First System was dominated by Revolutionary War veterans
Barack Obama is the new face of leadership of the Seventh Party System. This much is now abundantly clear to me. He is unmarred by the 'food fights' of the Vietnam Era, and he is neither a veteran of WWII (last one was Dole in '96) nor a Vietnam veteran or draft dodger (Clinton, Gore, Bush, Kerry).
The change that he talks about - the end to grid lock, the end of special interest lobbyists, a practical non-partisan approach is the siren song of this new period in American Politics. The Democratic Party will dominate presidential politics during this period but its policies will be marked by non-partisan practical problem solving.
Barack Obama is the leader of this new Period in American History.
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6 comments:
This was written a year ago and doesn't it ring true. We even have the economic turmoil now.
well unfortunately nothing that was said about obama or the emerging 7th party system is true. Obama is hated by a majority of independents and republicans, there is worse partisan fighting than in the late Bush years and more global disaster. Republicans are already expected to make mega-gains in the 2010 elections. the obama revolution of 2008 has already collapsed and there is no momentum on their side anymore
Too early to make that call 2010, it's now 2011 and the GOP is even more hated than Obama due to fiscal gridlock. Its only been 3 years. Interestingly enough, the Republican party has changed significantly. Less moral majority, more economic and fiscal conservatism. Plus with the new "Buffet tax rule" supported by 70% of Americans and supported in Obama's jobs bill Obama is still a strong contender for re-election.
The evidence I've provided as well as the world-wide appeal of The Occupy Wall Street movement and its fight against crony capitalism pretty much solidifies that with or without Obama we have indeed entered into a 7th party system.
You know, this blog post and its comments have the incredible opportunity to be a record of the changes in the political climate leading to the Seventh Party System, which I believe will emerge after the 2016 election.
I'm quite sure that President Obama will be re-elected later this year, no matter who gets the GOP nomination, but no one knows what will happen after that. Things could have gone differently for Romney had he not chosen to run in this cycle. He should have been smart like Nixon, who lost to Kennedy in 1960, then sat out the 1964 election, biding his time until 1968, when he won decisively, even beating out Romney's father George early in the Republican primaries. The Democrats will probably field Hilary Clinton again in 2016, and Romney has a real chance against her. Too bad Romney just seems so out of touch with average Americans, and somehow can't seem to hear the careless words that are coming out of his mouth sometimes. If he could get a handle on how campaigning actually works, he could have been a contender four years from now. The only thing he would have to worry about then is if Jeb Bush decides to hop into the race.
I agree with Politicus Denovo that the GOP has fractured into Business (Romney), Moderate/Defense (McCain), and Moral (Huckabee) wings. Much of the defense wing has already switched to Obama in light of the Navy Seals having killed Osama bin Laden, and Rick Santorum is just Huckabee part two. (The funny thing about Rick is that he claims to be a Catholic, but seemingly in name only. Compared to mainline Catholics, whether they're working or middle class, urban or suburban, he's as protestant evangelical as they come.) What I don't agree with is that energy is the tipping point. Obviously that has been the economic downturn starting in 2008, colloquially known as "The Great Recession" (just goes to show how far removed this country is from real economic hardship that we would dare to compare this economic readjustment to the Great Depression), but I have the benefit of hindsight.
Plus, the blogger could not have predicted the rise of the Tea Party, which will only be made more hard-line in the wake of this coming Republican loss. The sad thing is, the Republicans will lose two elections in a row having chosen the right candidates both times. McCain and Romney might not be the party's first choice, or the country's first choice, but in another time and place, against another Democratic candidate, they would have won. Romney will be defeated by the recovering economy, while McCain was defeated by the memory of George W. Bush, who embarrassed his party and country. These two consecutive losses will further fracture the party by making its most conservative elements think that they lost because they put out candidates who weren't conservative enough, when really thats not the truth. They were defeated by their own post-9/11 decade of increasing conservatism, while the Democrats were biding their time, moving closer and closer to the center. That is what allowed Obama to win, and why he will win again.
The GOP should have focused less on social and foreign issues, and more on picking up votes from the people that the Democratic Party forgot: the working class. They had so many chances to steal away labor unions, government workers, and conservative minorities during this past decade, but at each turn they continued to pay lip service to Reagan. Now, just as the New Deal Coalition fell apart in the face of the rising Moral Majority, the Moral Majority will splinter before a new, more responsible generation.
You know, this blog post and its comments have the incredible opportunity to be a record of the changes in the political climate leading to the Seventh Party System, which I believe will emerge after the 2016 election.
I'm quite sure that President Obama will be re-elected later this year, no matter who gets the GOP nomination, but no one knows what will happen after that. Things could have gone differently for Romney had he not chosen to run in this cycle. He should have been smart like Nixon, who lost to Kennedy in 1960, then sat out the 1964 election, biding his time until 1968, when he won decisively, even beating out Romney's father George early in the Republican primaries. The Democrats will probably field Hilary Clinton again in 2016, and Romney has a real chance against her. Too bad Romney just seems so out of touch with average Americans, and somehow can't seem to hear the careless words that are coming out of his mouth sometimes. If he could get a handle on how campaigning actually works, he could have been a contender four years from now. The only thing he would have to worry about then is if Jeb Bush decides to hop into the race.
I agree with Politicus Denovo that the GOP has fractured into Business (Romney), Moderate/Defense (McCain), and Moral (Huckabee) wings. Much of the defense wing has already switched to Obama in light of the Navy Seals having killed Osama bin Laden, and Rick Santorum is just Huckabee part two. (The funny thing about Rick is that he claims to be a Catholic, but seemingly in name only. Compared to mainline Catholics, whether they're working or middle class, urban or suburban, he's as protestant evangelical as they come.) What I don't agree with is that energy is the tipping point. Obviously that has been the economic downturn starting in 2008, colloquially known as "The Great Recession" (just goes to show how far removed this country is from real economic hardship that we would dare to compare this economic readjustment to the Great Depression), but I have the benefit of hindsight.
Plus, the blogger could not have predicted the rise of the Tea Party, which will only be made more hard-line in the wake of this coming Republican loss. The sad thing is, the Republicans will lose two elections in a row having chosen the right candidates both times. McCain and Romney might not be the party's first choice, or the country's first choice, but in another time and place, against another Democratic candidate, they would have won. Romney will be defeated by the recovering economy, while McCain was defeated by the memory of George W. Bush, who embarrassed his party and country. These two consecutive losses will further fracture the party by making its most conservative elements think that they lost because they put out candidates who weren't conservative enough, when really thats not the truth. They were defeated by their own post-9/11 decade of increasing conservatism, while the Democrats were biding their time, moving closer and closer to the center. That is what allowed Obama to win, and why he will win again.
The GOP should have focused less on social and foreign issues, and more on picking up votes from the people that the Democratic Party forgot: the working class. They had so many chances to steal away labor unions, government workers, and conservative minorities during this past decade, but at each turn they continued to pay lip service to Reagan. Now, just as the New Deal Coalition fell apart in the face of the rising Moral Majority, the Moral Majority will splinter before a new, more responsible generation.
This post is truly impressive. If Hillary Clinton wins in the states that she is expected to win at this moment, a clear map emerges that shows a seventh party system, distinct from the sixth. The deep south (except for Florida) and the plains states being red, and each of the coasts and the great lakes area being Blue. Further splintering of the GOP could turn Arizona and Georgia blue as well, but that will be a while.
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